Truck Day is just a week away, so it feels like the right time to put together my first Red Sox lineup projection of 2023.
Without a doubt, this has been one of the hardest groups to formulate for fans in a long time. At Winter Weekend, it was pretty a big part of the conversation, as Alex Cora hinted at some of the ideas he’s been going back and forth on.
He has his work cut out for him, so let’s try to piece together what the lineup card could look like on Opening Day against the Orioles.
FYI: All projections come from Steamer.
YOKOHAMA, JAPAN – AUGUST 07: Outfielder Masataka Yoshida #34 of Team Japan lines out into the double play in the first inning against of Team United State during the gold medal game between Team United States and Team Japan on day fifteen of the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games at Yokohama Baseball Stadium on August 07, 2021 in Yokohama, Kanagawa, Japan. (Photo by Koji Watanabe/Getty Images)
122 Games – 565 PA – .298/.388/.510/885 – 18 HR – 29 2B – 61 RBI – 140 wRC+
As I mentioned earlier, Cora wasn’t shy about hinting at some of his lineup configuration at Winter Weekend. He specifically mentioned Yoshida and Devers at the top of the lineup. Based on Yoshida’s history in the NPB with 421 walks to 300 strikeouts, it makes too much sense to have him leading off.
SEATTLE, WASHINGTON – JUNE 12: Rafael Devers #11 of the Boston Red Sox flips his bat after hitting a two-run home run against the Seattle Mariners to take a 2-0 lead during the eighth inning at T-Mobile Park on June 12, 2022 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Abbie Parr/Getty Images)
150 Games – 662 PA- .277/.345/.510/.855 – 32 HR – 39 2B – 100 RBI – 134 wRC+
Without a doubt, Devers is the best hitter in the Red Sox lineup. In today’s game, analytical front offices emphasize putting their most lethal bat in the #2 spot. Not to mention, we have the Cora hint as well.
LOS ANGELES, CALIFORNIA – MAY 13: Justin Turner #10 of the Los Angeles Dodgers watches his two run homerun, to tie the game 9-9 with the Philadelphia Phillies, during the ninth inning at Dodger Stadium on May 13, 2022 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)
126 Games – 541 PA – .267/.343/.421/.765 – 14 HR – 30 2B – 66 RBI – 114 wRC+
Back-to-back lefties to open the lineup isn’t ideal, but Turner will break that up in the #3 spot. His lack of strikeouts should give the Red Sox 3 straight bats that make pitchers work to start a game. If he can hit for a little more power in 2023, it will go a long way.
ST PETERSBURG, FLORIDA – SEPTEMBER 06: Triston Casas #36 of the Boston Red Sox hits a two run home run in the second inning during a game against the Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field on September 06, 2022 in St Petersburg, Florida. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)
123 Games – 492 PA – .247/.351/.451./801 – 19 HR – 23 2B – 62 RBI – 124 wRC+
This is a BIG ask for a rookie, but Casas isn’t your typical youngster trying to find his footing in the big leagues. There’s plenty of patience in this lineup, yet the power is lacking outside of Duvall. Casas supplies both and doesn’t give at-bats away, so I’m betting big on him.
Jul 12, 2022; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Braves center fielder Adam Duvall (14) hits a two-run home run against the New York Mets in the seventh inning at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
104 Games – 425 PA – .213/.272/.417/.689 – 20 HR – 17 2B – 55 RBI – 88 wRC+
Duvall isn’t going to post a high batting average or on-base percentage. Ultimately, you’d want him deeper in a lineup, but the Red Sox don’t currently have that luxury. You need a power righty in the middle of this lineup though, so he slots in here.
HOUSTON, TEXAS – OCTOBER 22: Alex Verdugo #99 of the Boston Red Sox singles during the seventh inning against the Houston Astros in Game Six of the American League Championship Series at Minute Maid Park on October 22, 2021 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)
138 Games – 586 PA – .281/.388/.429/.767 – 14 HR – 34 2B – 113 wRC+
The Red Sox are hoping once again for a Verdugo breakout in 2023. He was one of the best hitters on the team after June 1st with a 121 wRC+. Duvall will strike out a ton, but Verdugo should offer the opposite approach with a strong batting average.
Kiké Hernández
130 Games – 581 PA – .239/.310/.397/.708 – 16 HR – 31 2B – 60 RBI – 97 wRC+
Hernandez is one of the toughest hitters to slot in this lineup. He’s been the team’s leadoff hitter for a majority of the last two seasons, but Yoshida should change that. If he bounces back, his blend of pop and above-average K%/BB% should make this lineup deeper.
Christian Arroyo was a sneaky good find by Chaim Bloom, who claimed him off waivers at the end of the 2020 season. A former first-round pick who bounced around with three teams in four years before coming to Boston, the 26-year-old seems to be finding his stride despite a pair of stints on the DL. His .264 average would be among the best for a major league second baseman if he had enough at-bats to qualify, and he had a couple of clutch hits in mid-June that helped the Sox out of a slump.
Arroyo: 70 Games – 283 PA – .263/.314/.419/.733 – 8 HR – 15 2B – 33 RBI – 102 wRC+
Mondesi: 107 Games – 416 PA – .232/.278/.390/.668 -12 HR – 20 2B – 28 RBI – 83 wRC+
When it comes to 8th and 9th spot, I could see a few combinations. When Arroyo is in the lineup, he slots in nicely towards the bottom with a 103 OPS+ the last two seasons but limited power. Mondesi might make more sense in the 9th spot though, where his speed and switch-hitting ability could set-up the top of the lineup.
Sep 13, 2022; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Boston Red Sox catcher Reese McGuire (3) hits a home run during the third inning against the New York Yankees at Fenway Park. Mandatory Credit: Paul Rutherford-USA TODAY Sports
McGuire: 75 Games – 286 PA – .241/.294/.365/.658 – 5 HR – 15 2B – 28 RBI – 82 wRC+
Wong: 42 Games – 167 PA -.249/.300/.436/.736 – 6 HR – 9 2B – 28 RBI – 102 wRC+
McGuire was ridiculous after being traded to the Red Sox last season, posting a 145 wRC+ in 36 games. He offers a lefty bat following Hernandez and Arroyo in the lineup and doesn’t strikeout too much. When Wong is starting, it allows for a similar shakeup between the 8th and 9th spot with Mondesi in the mix.
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