The sports landscape has dramatically changed over the past 25 years and will continue to evolve over the next 25 years. Here’s a look at where the 10 most popular sports in America were 25 years ago (in 1989), where they are today and a prediction at where they will be in 25 years (in 2039).
1. NFL
25 years ago: The NFL was America’s most popular sport 25 years ago, but it was a neck-and-neck race with baseball. While the league’s composition looked the same (there’s only been four expansion teams added in the past 25 years), the game has become more explosive. In 1989, the average game featured 41.2 ppg and 421.8 passing yards per game. In 2014, those figures were 46.8 and 471.2.
Now: The NFL rules the sports world. In 2014, the NFL ranked as America’s top sport for the 30th straight season. And the gap between the NFL and the rest keeps getting larger and larger. The NFL’s TV ratings for preseason games are just a small step below World Series ratings. Modern-day NFL is the most powerful entity in the history of American sports.
In 25 years: It’s hard to imagine the NFL being anything but our No. 1 sport, not with gambling and fantasy football boosting our obsession with football. Many, including Hall of Fame quarterback Troy Aikman, have questioned the NFL’s long-term viability, pointing out concussions and the expansion of the TV schedule diluting the product. I don’t see it. Football will be king in 2039.
Trending: Slightly down
2. MLB
25 years ago: Baseball wasn’t exactly king, but it could make that argument along with the NFL. The sport was legitimately still America’s national pastime. Kids grew up watching baseball, as evident by the television ratings, which have fallen in the World Series by 40 percent over the past 25 years. It was rare to step into a household that didn’t have at least one baseball fan inside.
Now: Baseball’s popularity has waned as the game has slowed and society’s need for instant gratification has heightened. Baseball’s demographic is getting older. The average viewer of the 2014 World Series was 54.4 years old (it was 49.9 in 2009). The game is getting slower, too, with the average contest lasting 15 minutes longer than in 1989. The 1994 strike certainly hurt the sport.
In 25 years: The NFL has passed MLB and isn’t coming back. The question is whether baseball can hold off growing sports like the NBA, NHL and soccer and stay in the big four. According to a recent Harris Poll, baseball’s popularity has fallen more than any sport in the past 25 years. Kids aren’t watching it, and I wouldn’t be surprised if baseball wasn’t a top-five sport in 2039.
Trending: Down
3. College football/basketball
25 years ago: Bowl games were popular. The NCAA Tournament was popular. But college sports were on the back burner. They were still grasping their roots as an amateur endeavor that respected tradition. That’s changed over the past decade, with coaching salaries skyrocketing, $50 million locker rooms sprouting up and opportunity for female athletes becoming more easily available.
Now: College football is America’s third most-popular sport and while college basketball doesn’t rank as highly, its NCAA Tournament is one of the most popular events in sports. College athletics is as profitable as it’s ever been, but it’s also on the cusp of major change that threatens the existence and viability of college football and basketball. We’re in the middle of a watershed moment.
In 25 years: It feels like the NCAA is about to blow up. With lawsuits flying, unions forming and budgets exploding, college sports is going to change massively over the next five years, let alone 25. It’s hard to predict exactly how things will break down. Best guess? The NFL and NBA form true minor-league systems and college football and basketball turn into the modern-day college baseball.
Trending: Slightly down
4. NBA
25 years ago: This was the NBA’s BJ Era (Before Jordan). Yes, Michael Jordan was in the league, but he hadn’t won a title. Once he started winning titles and selling shoes, the NBA went to another level. Magic Johnson and Larry Bird elevated the NBA in the 1980s, but Jordan took it to previously unforeseen heights in the 1990s and greased the tracks for the NBA to make a run at MLB for the No. 2 spot.
Now: The NBA is very healthy, in part because it has LeBron James, the biggest figure in modern American sports. James has helped push the sport up after a semi-rough period from 2005-10. The formation of these “super teams” via free agency is annoying (especially to fans of small-market teams), so the NBA needs to work on its parity, but the league is firmly among the big three sports.
In 25 years: Two good signs: Basketball is the third-favorite sport of young adults (ages 18-29), behind only football and soccer, and Adam Silver is a well-liked and well-respected commissioner. That’s a good combination. The NBA will largely hinge on whether it has a transcendent star. That can make things volatile, but the NBA is in a good spot.
Trending: Up
5. MMA/Boxing
25 years ago: Boxing had a superstar in Mike Tyson and MMA didn’t really exist (the term wasn’t invented until 1993). Boxing was still a big sport in the late 1980s and 1990s, although not at the same level as it was decades earlier. Boxing had star power (Julio Cesar Chavez, Pernell Whitaker and Evander Holyfield were big names in the 1980s) and MMA was just about to take off.
Now: Time has eroded boxing to the point it’s barely relevant (when Floyd Mayweather fights, people pay attention, but that’s about it), while MMA is America’s fastest growing sport, although its fan base is decidedly male, which is a limiting factor. Ultimate Fighting Championship was founded in 1993, but it really took off in the mid-2000s and has an avid and deep fan base.
In 25 years: It’s hard to envision anything but a continuous decline for boxing and rise for MMA. Boxing could get some life if a charismatic heavyweight hits the scene, but its best days are behind. MMA and UFC will continue its recent climb, but how long will that last? My guess is it peters out a few years down the road — it has issues with older crowds and females, which will be hard to overcome.
Trending: Up (for MMA) and down (for boxing)
6. NASCAR/IndyCar
25 years ago: In 1989, every race of the NASCAR series was televised for the first time. Meanwhile, the IndyCar series was stocked with stars and plenty popular in the U.S. These two series have gone in different directions. There was a point when these series were equally as popular, which was good for motor racing, but IndyCar drivers must now jump to NASCAR to find fame.
Now: IndyCar racing has become irrelevant after the Indy Racing League split from CART in 1996. It’s now rated as popular as pro bull riding and minor-league baseball. Buoyed by ESPN’s coverage, NASCAR skyrocketed in the mid-2000s, but it’s fallen back of late. On the whole, NASCAR is more popular now than 25 years ago, but it is trending down while IndyCar has more or less fallen apart.
In 25 years: This is an interesting case. IndyCar seems done for good, but where will NASCAR go? Given the extreme finances required to run a team, it seems likely NASCAR will continue its downward trend. Motor sports has enough hardcore fans that NASCAR will always be viable, but it appeared five years ago that NASCAR could contend with the big sports. That’s not the case now.
Trending: Slightly down
7. NHL
25 years ago: Wayne Gretzky was traded to the Los Angeles Kings 26 years ago, which ushered in a rise in popularity for the sport in the U.S. Over the past 25 years, the NHL has added nine teams, which is a good sign. In 1989, the NHL only had three teams that weren’t located in Canada or within a 2-hour drive of Canada. The league is more evenly spread throughout America these days.
Now: The NHL has been up and down thanks to seemingly endless labor strife, but it’s hit a high note of late. In fact, in the Harris Poll asking fans to identify their favorite sport, the only sport with more growth over the past 25 years than hockey is pro football. The downside is hockey still ranks sixth, falling behind football (pro and college), baseball, basketball and auto racing.
In 25 years: I find it hard to believe hockey will ever become one of the big four sports again, even though it’s commonly lumped in that category. Hockey has a strong base of hardcore fans, but to take the next step, the sport needs to attract the middle-ground fans, which will be difficult to do. Hockey will continue to hover in the middle. It will always be relevant, but never become elite.
Trending: Slightly up
8. Soccer
25 years ago: Soccer was just about to grab a foothold in America’s consciousness. In 1990, Team USA qualified for its first World Cup in 40 years. In 1993, Major League Soccer was created. In 1994, the United States hosted the World Cup. And that’s when things started to change. But if you trace back to 1989, soccer was as relevant as bowling, track and field and swimming.
Now: Soccer is relevant in the United States, which isn’t something you could always say. The growth in the MLS the past two decades has been tremendous. More American fans are interested in the English Premier League than ever before. Tim Howard, Clint Dempsey and Landon Donovan have become household names. While some sports have faded (i.e. boxing), this one is rising.
In 25 years: There’s no doubt it’s growing. But how quickly? Interestingly, the same percent of the U.S. population identified soccer as their favorite sport in 1989 as 2014 (just 2 percent). Every World Cup, you hear about how soccer is going to explode in the U.S. That’s not happening, but consistent growth will occur. Soccer is on the way up. But it’s going to be a slow ascent.
Trending: Up
9. PGA Tour
25 years ago: Golf was more popular back then than now (by a little). Yes, Jack Nicklaus and Arnold Palmer were off the scene, but Nick Faldo, Payne Stewart and Greg Norman still gave people something to be interested in. Golf started to decline right around this period, and while Tiger Woods helped revive the sport during his prime, it’s mostly been a downhill fall over the past four decades.
Now: Mired in a slump. Woods lifted golf to new ground in the 2000s when he was must-watch TV. But following his personal scandal and litany of injuries, the sport has struggled. The tour still has excellent talent, but golf demands something special to get people interested. Nicklaus, Palmer, Woods and even Phil Mickelson all had that. The tour seems to be lacking that pizzazz.
In 25 years: I’m worried about the future of golf. It has a similar issue as baseball: Its viewers are old. That doesn’t offer a lot of hope, although a seminal talent like Woods could change that. The shuttering of golf courses following the recession doesn’t help, either. If young people can’t play golf because of economics, they’re a lot less prone to watch it on television.
Trending: Down
10. ATP Tour
25 years ago: Believe it or not, tennis was more popular in the U.S. than hockey, golf or auto racing and just a cut below the NBA. It’s been a steady decline since then. It certainly helped that Americans John McEnroe and Jimmy Connors were at the top of their sport in the 1980s and engaged in an epic rivalry. Back then, tennis was more than just the major tournaments.
Now: While tennis has declined over the past 25 years, it hasn’t been too dramatic. Tennis has dropped off a little, but it is in the middle of a golden era of talent with Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray. But the lack of an American star, which we haven’t had since Pete Sampras and Andre Agassi, has hurt the sport in the United States, even if it’s thriving elsewhere.
In 25 years: Tennis has turned into (a more popular) horse racing in a lot of ways, with it being marked by some major events that draw crowds but lacking consistent popularity throughout the year. A more apt description (25 years ago and today) is to the PGA Tour. These two will continue to battle it out for fans, with the sport with the stronger American star likely getting the upper hand.
Trending: Stable
Other sports
• Lacrosse: This sport is like a watered-down soccer. It will make some strides over the next couple of decades — it’s already huge on the East Coast — but it’s unlikely to become a top-10 sport in America.
• WNBA: The majority of WNBA teams are believed to lose money, with the NBA subsidizing some of the losses. That’s not a great business model, but the WNBA should be on solid footing for the future.
• Track and field: This sport was bigger in the 1980s and 1990s than it is now. Yes, a single star can help make it relevant (like Carl Lewis or Usain Bolt), but track and field will only be relevant in the Olympics.
• Xtreme sports: Here’s a sport that will continue to grow. The X Games were founded in 1995, and with many Xtreme sports being added to the Olympics in recent years, the future looks bright.
• Horse racing: We care about the Triple Crown races. We don’t care about every other race. That’s not going to change, and with foaling rates rapidly decreasing, the sport has passed its prime.
Columnist Chris Murray provides insight on Northern Nevada sports. Email cmurray@rgj.com or follow him on Twitter @MurrayRGJ.
