What will the 2023 transfer portal cycle be like when the FBS window opens on Dec. 5? One staffer at a Pac-12 school may have summed it up the best: “It will make December 5th the most important day on the college football calendar.”
With the window opening looming on the horizon, we asked that exact question (and many others) of more than a dozen FBS player personnel and recruiting staffers to preview what promises to be a blockbuster offseason for college football’s supercharged version of free agency. As one in-the-know person told me this week: “There will be players who are happy at their schools who still decide to enter, just to see what kind of NIL package they can get.” We saw plenty examples of that last cycle, but expect even more of it this time around.
Adding to the chaos are some significant rule changes that will impact this cycle’s proceedings. Schools are no longer limited to signing just 25 initial counters per cycle. This means programs can aggressively rework their rosters to sign up to their 85-scholarship limit. Many across the country believe that this will lead to players being run off rosters. The NCAA also passed a rule that schools are required to keep transfer athletes on scholarship through the completion of their eligibility clock or until they complete their undergraduate degree. This means there’s more risk than ever in taking an undergraduate transfer, because they’re stuck on the roster no matter what.
This is the first cycle with transfer portal windows, which stretch from Dec. 5 to January 18 for the FBS with another period from April 15-30. No longer can players enter the portal whenever they please, though there are always exceptions to the rules. Graduate transfers and players whose head coaches have left the program are not subjected to these guidelines, which is why athletes have already started entering the portal.
How do schools view those rule changes? How rampant is tampering in the era of NIL? Let’s dive into what you can expect to see from the portal in the coming months.
Note: 247Sports spoke to at least one staffer from every FBS conference. They’ll be noted based on their conference in the story.
ACC: “General theory to me is … if he’s going to be in your two-deep, it should be an automatic take. Because, no matter what you’re improving the top half of the roster.”
AAC: “It begins with knowing what your pipeline is. As a major metroplex school, a high traffic area for talent, we must mine every single player who came out of this city and the state, working our way out, at the college level for P5, G5 and the FCS.”
AAC 2: “Our strategy has always been to bring in high-level kids who we either recruited out of high school or we have some connection to. That will not change for us.”
Big 12 1: “Preparation is key.”
Big Ten: “Our strategy is probably less aggressive than most. We’re looking for premier players in the portal, guys that would be draft picks. We prioritize the culture of retaining our guys that teams will try to poach over obtaining new players.”
C-USA 1: “Be right. Don’t miss. Who cares if it’s the flashiest or sexiest? Give me kids who’ve played ball somewhere. Some of those top kids from the top schools in the portal, they don’t have that dog in them, otherwise they’d already be playing.”
MAC: “We need to have an existing relationship with a coach either at the high school or college to get background on the kid or have a previous relationship with the kid. Last season we tried to load up on midyear JUCO’s since we felt more schools would hit the portal. And while those guys have helped us, we had a better hit rate with our portal guys.”
M-West: “We’re big buyers and sellers. Any team going through a transitional phase I believe is in [need] of using it. And if you’re not, you’re setting yourself behind a little bit.”
Pac-12: “Fit over everything.”
SEC 1: “It’s where we’re short on the board and get a player who can come in immediately and impact things.”
SEC 2: “Be aware, but wait and see.”
Sun Belt: “Allows you to address immediate needs — have to approach the portal, junior college and high school recruiting in a similar manner. Balance each out according to your roster and go find the players in each area that give you the best chance to win.”
AAC 1: “Teams won’t have the ability to play ‘Follow the Leader.’ You can call it the waiver wire era and the free agency era. … You could wait a couple of days, see a bunch of schools offer them and then offer. I’d say more than half the country was doing that. … Now, with the windows, these kids have two weeks to get in if they’re a mid-year enrollee. The best ones will know where they’re going.”
AAC 2: “I think it will be interesting to see the impact it will have on the bowl games. One thing many people have not thought of is: Now that there is a transfer portal window, that will encourage the players who are entering the portal to do so before the bowl game at a higher rate. We could see a depletion of rosters for bowl games at an all-time high.”
Big Ten 1: “It’ll make it way harder on schools to keep track of all the guys who are entering simultaneously. But, I think it’ll just increase the amount of tampering. Schools are gearing up because they know they must evaluate the whole country before they go into the portal. You’d hope players make better decisions because they have more time before they enter the portal, but I’m skeptical that’ll be the case.”
Big Ten 2: “I think it will lead, and has led, to an increase in tampering. But that being said, I think we’ve seen less players opt out than last year, quitting a few weeks before the season ends so they can get their names in the portal. I also think it’ll be really productive in the spring. I think there will be less guys who leave in February and March than last year.”
C-USA 1: “Everything is just going to be rushed. It’s insane, in my opinion, to let the FBS portal open only 17 days before signing day. The kid has finals, you have to get him on campus, he has to get his transcript evaluated, you have to try and find him a place to live. It’s asinine. It’s so rushed. You can’t build a relationship with a kid in 17 days. That stuff takes time.”
C-USA 2: “What I’m curious to see is: When December 5 hits, are we going to get preemptive notices ahead of that? Or will it be that December 5 is here and there are now 10,000 kids in the portal? We’re trying to wrap our minds around the fact if this will benefit us or not.”
Sun Belt: “It’ll speed everything up even more. You won’t have nearly as much time to identify and evaluate thoroughly to get kids on campus. Which gives an advantage to larger staffs and recruiting departments, for sure. Manpower will be at a premium.”
SEC 1: “It became difficult in the past year or so to manage how many players go in. When you know and you can prepare for a specific time that it’s going to happen it helps. I think it was designed, a little bit, to eliminate some of the tampering that goes on — which will never fully go away. But, I think it helps control it a little bit.”
ACC: “I’m not sure it’ll be that high. I bet most transfers that transferred Power Five didn’t stay Power Five. NIL is such a complicated space right now. That plays a part in it as well.”
AAC 1: ““I think you’ll get a very similar number. You’ll start to see more guys in the draft, because we’re now coming up on sixth and seventh-year seniors. We’re one-and-a-half years away from things kind of normalizing from COVID. The further we get away from 2020, the less and less numbers we see just as rosters normalize.”
AAC 2: “3,500-plus.”
Big Ten 1: “If there were 3,000 last year, there’s probably less of an overall pool of players who can transfer because they can’t transfer more than once. At the same time, it seems like the NCAA will make a waiver for anything, regardless of what the rule says. The more it becomes normalized, the more guys will do it when they’re thinking about it. The more it gets publicized that FCS and G-5 guys are moving up and having success, the more guys that will latch onto that.”
C-USA 2: “There will always be disgruntled players. And if you give them the option to bounce, that’s the culture we’re in. Kids are going to do it.”
MAC: “I expect the number to grow again, slightly. Not sure how much more the number can feasibly increase. That’s roughly 20% of all FBS players.”
M-West: “I think it’ll probably be around the same. It’ll just be a lot more concentrated.”
Sun Belt: “The number has gone up each of the last 3 years, at this point I would be surprised if that didn’t continue.”
ACC: “I don’t think you’ll have too many coaches pushing people out (in December). I think that’ll happen after spring ball.”
AAC: “1,000%. It’s a one-for-one mentality. You have to cultivate talent and increase competition. Guys that aren’t a fit are going to be helped out of programs.”
AAC 2: “This gives schools an opportunity to completely flip the bottom half of their roster, and there’s no doubt there will be schools who take advantage of it. With the pressure to win now and now the opportunity to flip your roster after a bad year, schools will be looking towards the portal to do so.”
Big Ten 1: “I think teams will be aggressive in that — especially down south where it’s more accepted to phase guys out.”
Big Ten 2: “I would expect them to be more aggressive. But I think it’s a positive change for schools hit by the portal. All of a sudden we lose a guy because he gets a financial offer to go to a SEC school, we actually have the means to replace him. It’s a needed change.”
Big 12 1: “Not intentionally but do believe there will be around 30-40 new players on each roster next season between high school and the portal.”
Big 12 2: “Why would you keep a kid on your roster you know can’t play when you can go get somebody you know can? If teams aren’t aggressively flipping their roster over, I’d say you’re behind.”
C-USA 2: “We saw it at my last school. There were like 40 kids in the portal and the majority of them were kids the head coach said: ‘You guys go on and get, we’re going to make room for our players.’ Sometimes you just get in a situation where you find kids, either in high school or transfer, and you want to make room for them.”
Pac-12: “I envy new staffs that do not have to go through multiple year rebuilds anymore. We had to go through that. For schools that can utilize the portal, your window to start competing looks a lot closer to 18 months than perhaps the 36 or so months you would need in the past. Obviously, Stanford and Northwestern are exceptions to this. But, there is a net benefit that their academic prestige provides them over the rest of the country — player retainment.”
SEC 1: “It allows you to turn over your roster a lot faster, because you’re not restricted to a certain number. … Here at a higher level, it’s a little easier to say: ‘Hey man, you’re still a good player. You can go play at a different school. But, you don’t fit what we’re trying to do here.’ At a lesser level, it’s a little tougher conversation because at that point you’re probably not good enough to play.”
SEC 2: “Yes, especially schools with new staffs.”
AAC 1: “If a kid quits and just is done with college football, then you’re stuck on that number. You have to make sure he can survive. It’s not just about getting the best talent now, you have to make sure you get guys that are the right fit.”
AAC 2: “The evaluation of not only the talent, but the person is vital. The medical exam on campus will be an important piece as well.”
Big Ten 1: “The people that are really aggressive in the portal have a belief in where college football is going. Which is basically, in a year or two, you won’t have to worry about a rule that’s in place because there will be another rule that changes the whole game. In one or two years, you’ll probably be allowed to transfer an unlimited number of times. The people that are really aggressive in the portal are forward thinkers anyway. I think it’ll just keep them aggressive.”
Big Ten 2: “Them changing those rules certainly impacts [who] you want to take and how careful you have to be in taking them. I truly believe the [NCAA] Transformation Committee was hearing from people: ‘This transfer thing is out of control.’ I don’t think they legally saw a route in which they could limit student athletes from transferring. So, they looked at the demand side instead of the supply side to make transferring more restrictive for the schools.”
C-USA 1: “It depends, how long is the head coach’s contract? Win now is crazy. It’s win now. There’s no more looking four or five years in the future.”
MAC: “The new rule definitely impacts our transfer strategy. It gives JUCO guys a leg up on some of these transfers because you won’t have to honor that scholarship for as long of a period. You really have to be certain that you’re going to hit on a transfer to take them, because otherwise that could be a 3 or 4-year mistake.”
M-West: “That rule will change the landscape of the portal a little bit. I think everyone will take a little step back.”
SEC 2: “I think you definitely have to get your information as long as it doesn’t take up too much time and costs you missing out on that player.”
ACC: “It’s not clean at all. It’s totally screwed up … You have people trying to posture for better compensation, better setups, more playing time. … We’ve already had guys alert us that people have approached them with seven-figure deals. The tampering thing is very real.”
AAC 2: “It’s happening. Every day. It’s scary to see because you’re concerned about your own players doing the same.”
Big 12 1: “We don’t get into that business here. But what’s been entertaining to me, is how sloppy some teams are with it. Following players on other teams’ active rosters and thinking people aren’t noticing. All these places are doing is building a case against themselves for violations in plain sight. You’d think they’d be more careful or must think people aren’t watching who they’re following/targeting. It’s usually young inexperienced up and coming personnel guys and analysts.”
Big Ten 1: “I’m sure it’s happening, but I think part of it is paranoia. It’s like NIL. Is it happening? Yes. But, is every good kid signing with schools because of NIL? No. … We’re getting our NIL money ready to protect our roster.”
Big Ten 2: “We got told by one of our best players, a school that was a nationally recognized school, was calling his high school head coach saying: ‘Hey, if he wants to transfer, we’ve got a spot for him. We’d love to have him.’ We hear about things like that all the time.”
C-USA 1: “Some of the best recruits we’ll get are keeping some of are current players. It’s bullsh**, we’ve got kids getting hit up left and right. ‘You’re better than that place.’ … It’s stupid. It’s not fair to the kids. A kid can be completely happy somewhere and get that put in their mind and be completely mentally wrecked. It takes away from your current team.
“I get calls from buddies at bigger schools wanting to know who the best players are at other schools we played, so they can go get them. They say, ‘We’re going to go buy those guys.'”
C-USA 2: “It’s happening. High school coaches are making calls. Handlers are making calls. Kids are calling. If you’re recruiting them out of high school, they’re making all those calls. There’s a whole lot of backdoor stuff going on.”
MAC: “At the G5 level, we don’t have the same reach as the big schools. But, I have noticed an uptick in FCS players following our staff and vice versa on Twitter.”
M-West: “Before in recruiting it was like, ‘Oh, they committed there.’ Then, you just drop the recruitment of them. Now, you recruit them all the way through the process with the idea in the back of their mind that this person could eventually hop in the transfer portal with the idea in the back of your mind that I already have this relationship with them.”
SEC 1: “If you’re not doing it, you’re behind the 8-ball. Unfortunately, that’s how it is. Year round it’s gotten to the point where there’s somebody who works for these teams that are evaluating other teams. That’s what it’s turned into.”
SEC 2: “Don’t think it’s as crazy as you may think. But, I think film is being watched and now it’s a waiting game.”
Sun Belt: “I avoid that like the plague. Not oblivious to the fact that it goes on, but I wouldn’t want one of our guys to be shopping himself around midseason or for us to be encouraging that elsewhere.”
ACC: “Fu**** up. It’ll be a sh** show. It’s going to be a marathon at a sprint’s pace the whole time.”
AAC 1: “It will be gracious to those who sowed their seeds.”
AAC 2: “The wild, wild west.”
Big 12 1: “A case study in the importance of roster management and retention.”
Big 12 2: “Exhaustive.”
Big Ten: “Chaotic. Thinking of all the players that are going in and how to categorize and evaluate them all. It’ll be impossible for Group of Five schools.”
Big Ten 2: “Wild. But, it’ll be good when it ends and everyone has rosters set for at least a few months.”
C-USA 2: “Chaos.”
C-USA 2: “I think it’ll be business as usual with people making up rules as they go, and nobody is going to know.”
MAC: “The most high-profile portal cycle we’ve seen to date.”
M-West: “It’s going to be a madhouse.”
Pac-12: “Chaos.”
SEC 1: “Chaotic.”
SEC 2: “Mass chaos.”
Sun Belt: “Busy.”
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