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Conflict expected to grind on throughout 2023, officials predict
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Russia is unlikely to make significant breakthroughs beyond the “sideshow” of recent gains near the frontline city of Bakhmut in eastern Ukraine, Western officials have claimed.
Officials warned that they expect the war to grind on throughout 2023, in a conflict they believe has inflicted more than 100,000 losses on each side – with one suggesting the death toll among Vladimir Putin’s troops is even higher due to them being on the offensive.
Meanwhile, Downing Street said it would not be “practical” for Britain to provide Kyiv with fighter jets, as France suggested that there was “no taboo” on Paris doing so, days after the volte face on Western tanks which officials said could see up to 140 sent to Kyiv in a “first wave” of deliveries.
Elsewhere, former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev, a close ally of Vladimir Putin, boasted that the sanctions slapped on Moscow by Ukraine’s allies have “failed miserably”, claiming that “enemy countries do not have the courage to admit that their hellish sanctions” have misfired.
Downing Street has rebuffed senior MEP Guy Verhofstadt’s suggestion that Russia may not have invaded Ukraine if Brexit had not happened (see post at 11:15am).
The prime minister’s official spokesperson said: “Putin’s illegal invasion has nothing to do with Brexit. In fact, the invasion has demonstrated the UK’s commitment to European security.
“We have from the start been working extremely closely with our European allies, which is a real tangible demonstration of the UK’s continued commitment to the security of the continent.
“That will not change and it’s nonsense to suggest otherwise”.
Rishi Sunak believes it is “not practical” to send British fighter jets to Ukraine, despite being keen to boost support to Kyiv to avoid a lengthy stalemate in the country’s war with Russian invaders.
Downing Street said training Volodymyr Zelensky’ forces on “extremely sophisticated” Typhoons and F-35s would take too long.
No 10 did not, however, oppose allies sending their own jets, as France makes noises to that effect today (see post below).
Our political correspondent Adam Forrest has more details in this report:
“There is no taboo” on supplying fighter jets to Ukraine, France’s defence minister has suggested – as No 10 insisted it would not be “practical” for the UK to do so.
Speaking after a meeting with his Ukrainian counterpart, Sebastien Lecornu also announced that Paris would send Kyiv 12 additional Caesar howitzers and dispatch 150 army staff to Poland to train up to 600 Ukrainian troops there each month.
Mr Lecornu set out France’s position when it came to supplying arms to Ukraine, saying it should not weaken France’s own defence capacity, that it should be useful to help Ukraine in the conflict with Russia and that the weapons be used only by Ukraine to defend itself.
Last week’s volte face from Washington and Berlin will see Ukraine receive between 120 and 140 tanks in a “first wave” deliveries from 12 countries, Kyiv’s foreign minister has announced.
While Kyiv has said that hundreds of tanks will be needed to make a significant difference on the battlefield, Dmytro Kuleba said that Ukrainian officials are working behind the scenes to persuade more countries to send tanks.
“The tank coalition now has 12 members. I can note that in the first wave of contributions, the Ukrainian armed forces will receive between 120 and 140 Western-model tanks,” Mr Kuleba told reporters.
“We continue to work on both expanding the membership of the tank coalition and increasing the contributions of those already pledged,” the foreign minister added.
A presidential aide to Volodymyr Zelensky has warned that Russia has intensified its attacks as he called for Ukraine’s allies to send more weapons.
Mykhailo Podolyak alleged that “systematic shelling of frontline cities, accumulation of ordnance, redeployment of troops, additional forced mobilisation surely do not indicate” Moscow’s readiness for peace.”
“These are direct signs of significant escalation. Therefore, weapons, weapons and more weapons for Ukraine,” he wrote.
Since winning Western pledges last week to provide main battle tanks, Kyiv has requested more weapons – including fighter jets. France has indicated a willingness to potentially send jets, but Downing Street warned on Tuesday that it would not be practical for the UK to do so.
Ukraine has prevented Russia from gaining control of a crucial supply line leading to the frontline town of Bakhmut from Chasiv Yar, a Kyiv military spokesperson has said.
Speaking after Moscow said its forces had seized control of Blohodatne, a small village just north of Bakhmut, Serhiy Cherevaty said: “Russian troops could not cut off the road which is used for supplying the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The Ukrainian army in Bakhmut is supplied with everything necessary.”
Our political correspondent Adam Forrest reports:
Western defence officials have said that Russia is unlikely to make significant breakthroughs beyond recent gains in the outskirts of the city of Bakhmut in south-east Ukraine.
The Russian capture of the salt-mining town of Soledar and creeping gains in villages near Bakhmut were described a “sideshow”.
The conflict is likely to grind on throughout 2023, officials said, even if both sides make territorial gains at different times.
Officials also said the pledges made by UK, US, Germany and others to send tanks now exceeds the 300 vehicles president Volodymyr Zelensky has asked for in recent weeks.
But tanks are unlikely to be sent to the battlefield until the end of March.
Russia and Ukraine are both thought to have suffered more than 100,000 casualties since Moscow’s invasion, Western officials have said.
However, one official suggested that, Russia has sustained a higher number of fatalities than Kyiv given that they have been on the offensive.
“I would say the ratio is different on each side,” the official told reporters. “The Russians have been attacking and that means they have suffered more fatalities than the Ukrainians have, on balance.”
A former member of the Wagner mercenary group now seeking asylum in Norway has apologised to Ukrainians also living in the Scandinavian country who object to his presence there.
“I’m a scoundrel to you, but I only ask you to take into account that I have come to realise that, albeit belatedly, and I spoke against all that,” Andrey Medvedev told Norwegian broadcaster NRK. “I ask you not to condemn me, and in any case I apologise.”
Earlier this month, the former mercenary described leaving the group after his contract was extended without his extent, before fleeing across the Russian border into Norway.
He told Russian human rights group Gulagu.net hat he is ready to testify about potential war crimes. Norway’s National Criminal Investigation Service, which is taking part in the Ukraine war crimes probe, has said it is questioning Medvedev, who “has the status of a witness.”
A man has been found guilty by Moscow of attempting to burn down a military enlistment office in Siberia, reports say.
He has been jailed for 12 years in a ruling that classified his crime as an “act of terrorism”.
Reuters adds:
According to the TASS state news agency, the decision by a military court in Yekaterinburg was the first time a Russian court had used the terrorism designation to punish someone for an arson attack on an enlistment office.
In Tuesday’s ruling, Vladislav Borisenko, who was accused of trying to burn down such an office in the Siberian city of Nizhnevartovsk in May, was sentenced to 12 years — to be spent first in prison, and then in a maximum security prison colony.
TASS said the fire had spread across an area of one square kilometre, but that nobody had been hurt.
Borisenko had carried out the attack with another man and they had both allegedly confessed their guilt, it said, saying they had purportedly acted on the promise of receiving a financial reward from a third party.
The court said in a statement that its ruling could be appealed.
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