Schedule favorability in college football is vital to big-time success and in the SEC, there’s nothing more important once you get past roster talent. After producing two teams in the College Football Playoff last fall including eventual national champion Georgia, the league continues to garner elite-level respect from the selection committee given the conference’s top to bottom strength.
Getting off to a hot start in September is essential and in the first month, the road to a division title can look increasingly difficult with an early setback against league competition. Glancing at this season’s first four weeks of the season, SEC schedules are not created equally and some programs are in for a rude opening month.
Let’s take a closer look at numerous matchups that could play a role in the league title race early on this fall.
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Here’s our projection of every SEC team’s record to close out September, as we creep into the second week of fall camp.
Projected September record: 2-3
Take the good with the bad, Vandy fans. The Commodores’ entire 2022 win total may come during the first month of the season when Clark Lea’s team plays three winnable games in addition to Wake Forest and Alabama. They open at Hawaii, host Elon and travel to Northern Illinois, along with the aforementioned matchups with preseason-top-20 teams. Getting to October at 3-2 overall would be a major step in the right direction for a program which hasn’t won a game against SEC competition in several years.
Projected September record: 3-1
Mike Leach and the Bulldogs will be tested early and often on defense this season by a variety of different looks. Mississippi State opens against bowl-bound Memphis, then travels to Arizona to take on a team stuck in mediocrity. From there, Mississippi State battles LSU in Baton Rouge to open the SEC schedule and hosts Bowling Green before meeting Texas A&M Oct. 1. If the Bulldogs split these four games, that could prove fatal to bowl hopes considering the rest of the slate. At worst, Mississippi State needs to go 3-1 here.
Projected September record: 2-2
With trips to Kansas State and Auburn dotting the first month for the Tigers, Missouri’s offense needs to be sharp to open things up. And considering the quarterback competition is a four-player race at the moment, a .500 split might be best-case scenario for a team much of the SEC knows very little about. Five-star wideout Luther Burden has a chance to make an immediate splash against Louisiana Tech and Abilene Christian, opponents who don’t have a cornerback to stick on the athletic playmaker. He’s a true freshman ready to own the SEC in due time.
Projected September record: 4-0
The easiest slate in September in the SEC belongs to — drumroll please — Lane Kiffin and Ole Miss. The Rebels leave Oxford, Mississippi only once over the first five weeks of the season, a trek to Atlanta to take on woeful Georgia Tech. That should give the new-look offense under the direction of transfer Jaxson Dart or Luke Altmyer plenty of time to find a rhythm considering none of the early competition has SEC-level talent. The SEC opener versus Kentucky Oct. 1 is one of the biggest of the season for Kiffin and company.
Projected September record: 3-1
If Mark Stoops and the Wildcats find a way to win on the road at Florida, something the program has done only twice in the past four decades, Kentucky will be 4-0 and inside the top 15 traveling to The Grove in October. Kentucky has won 10 games twice over the past four seasons and this year’s schedule is favorable — by SEC standards. Tennessee and Georgia appear to be the only matchups with teams we expect to be ranked inside the preseason AP Poll later this month.
Projected September record: 4-0
D.W.R Razorbacks Stadium might fall down before the kickoff against Alabama in October if both of those teams come into that one unbeaten. Arkansas hasn’t beaten the Crimson Tide in more than a decade, but could have the team to get it done this fall considering the preseason No. 1 won’t be tested in September. Getting there will be difficult for the Razorbacks, however. They open against Cincinnati, host South Carolina in Week 2 and then play Missouri State before a divisional showdown with Texas A&M. If Arkansas wins those four games, Sam Pittman’s crew is worthy of top 10 billing when Alabama comes to town.
Projected September record: 4-0
One of the more surprising picks in the league, Auburn may shock everyone and start with a perfect mark through four weeks if the Tigers are able to take care of business at home, which includes a showdown vs. Penn State and the league opener against Missouri. The first team to 10 points might win the Penn State-Auburn matchup given the expectation defensively for both teams. Auburn will not leave Jordan-Hare Stadium until Oct. 8 against Georgia, marking five consecutive home games to open the season. That’s ideal for coach Bryan Harsin — until it’s not.
Projected September record: 2-2
As mentioned earlier this summer, if South Carolina can survive an 0-2 start to SEC play this season and quickly recover, the Gamecocks can still make significant strides during Shane Beamer’s second campaign following a better-than-expected 7-6 last fall. The losses in during the first month will come to Arkansas on the road and Georgia at home in back to back weeks. We polled our South Carolina audience this week on which game was more winnable and an overwhelming amount chose Arkansas. However, the game against the Bulldogs will be Georgia’s first road matchup of the season and Williams-Brice is always rowdy when Georgia comes to town.
Projected September record: 2-2
Already grabbing my shield to protect myself from the tomatoes being hurled by Florida fans here, but it’s going to take a season for Billy Napier to work himself into a lather in the SEC. Depth issues is a bad omen facing this opening-month brutality, including the opener against a top 10-Utah team along with Kentucky and a trip to Tennessee. Kentucky has only won in Gainesville twice since 1979, but it could happen again in a few weeks. And the Volunteers are 1-16 in their last 17 against the Gators, another statistic that will head in the other direction this fall. Fully prepared for the opposite to happen, for the record, if Anthony Richardson is the menace at quarterback many are expecting.
Projected September record: 3-1
Texas A&M will play its share of quality competition prior to facing Alabama in October, but the Aggies won’t get to that one unscathed. Early-season matchups with Appalachian State, Miami and Arkansas will result in one loss, that likely coming against the Razorbacks at AT&T Stadium. Arkansas snapped a lengthy losing skid in the SEC West rivalry last season and may win again to force its way into the top 10 nationally after September. Razorbacks defensive coordinator Barry Odom will have enough film on quarterback Haynes King — or Max Johnson — by this point to put together an impressive game plan.
Projected September record: 4-0
This is a dangerous projection, yes, but we like living on the edge here in August and if the Volunteers can win the biggest game in several years on Sept. 24 against Florida, Tennessee has a great shot at exiting the first month unblemished and ranked inside the top 20. An open date follows before a showdown at LSU that could potentially vault the Volunteers into the top 10. Before we get there, however, Tennessee battles Pittsburgh on the road in Week 2, a rematch of last season’s loss against the eventual ACC champions.
Projected September record: 4-0
Jump on the Brian Kelly before it’s too late, LSU fans. Most have already taken a seat after the program received a jolt of momentum last year when the coaching hire was made after the Tigers lured him away from Notre Dame to fill their vacancy. LSU is one of the best jobs in the country and even if quarterback play is not elite during the opening month, the Tigers should be able to get to 4-0 with notable wins over Florida State and Mississippi State. The tougher game is likely Mississippi State, given the Bulldogs’ victory the last time Mike Leach and company came to Tiger Stadium.
Projected September record: 4-0
Georgia’s toughest test in the early going with eight new starters on defenses comes at South Carolina in Week 3’s SEC opener, unless Oregon and former Bulldogs defensive coordinator Dan Lanning has a few tricks up their sleeve in the first game. Matching up with the Gamecocks and new transfer quarterback Spencer Rattler could be challenging for Georgia if the bulk of first-year defenders show a lack of discipline on the road. However, that’s unlikely. We expect Georgia to be 4-0 with relative ease entering October.
Projected September record: 4-0
Alabama’s road schedule might be the toughest in Nick Saban’s tenure, but luckily for the Crimson Tide, the only game away from Tuscaloosa in September comes against Texas. That team is not yet ready to win at the line of scrimmage, at least not against an opponent of Alabama’s caliber. With that one out of the way, the defending SEC champions should roll by three or more touchdowns in their other outings against Utah State, Louisiana Monroe and Vanderbilt.
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